Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
